Last week Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior V. P. of Research at the National Association of Realtors, paid a visit to Charlottesville to offer his economic and real estate outlook at the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors (CAAR) General Membership Meeting. He emphasized that the moderate recovery we’re experiencing in rising home sales is a positive thing because it is much more sustainable than the boom in the early 2000s caused by subprime lending. The challenge we face today, he said, is the lack of supply to meet the demand. Specifically, there are too few available houses that meet the needs of first time home buyers. Yet he is hopeful that steady recovery will continue and that there will be the potential for growth going forward.
In order to create a more detailed picture of what is happening, he presented his analysis of the middle class today. The fact that median household income has not fully recovered to match the levels seen in 2000 and 2007, he says, has upset middle class ideas about the American Dream. He then pointed out that a majority of American families are not directly impacted by positive spikes in the economy because only 10% of them have a meaningful ($100K or more) investment in the stock market, which contributes to the overall viewpoint that the economy is not recovering. Then there is the fact that despite making high profits, businesses are not spending as much as they used to. And even though the employment rate is rising and the unemployment rate appears to be falling, he pointed out that what these statistics fail to show is the unemployed person who is not actively searching for work, as this is a requirement to be included in the unemployment rate. Specifically in Charlottesville, he said, there are 20,000 more people with jobs in the area than there were in 2000, which has contributed to the high housing demand.
In addition, rent is at a 7-year high, he said, and will be the driver of inflation in the future. Rising rents encourage home ownership, which offers the benefit of a stable mortgage payment. And a high inflation rate will mean higher mortgage interest rates. But currently the rate of homeownership is at a 50-year low. Younger households are less likely to own, a fact explained by the large wealth gap between young adults (defined by those under 35) and retirees. While wealth has grown for retirees since 1983, it has declined for those under 35. Yun sited contributing factors such as the rise of tuition and student loan debt, as well as medical inflation. This is the reason, Yun said, we’re seeing less foot traffic and lockbox openings.
The National Association of Realtors will make a large effort in the next year, he said, to present to the next President of the United States the benefits of home ownership. These include a lower juvenile delinquency rate, better health, self-esteem, and civic engagement. But since all of these benefits can be counteracted by foreclosure, the National Association of Realtors will emphasize the need for sustainable home ownership. The good news in Virginia is that the mortgage delinquency rate is lower than the rest of the country.
In an article published on Forbes online titled “Are We Entering a New Housing Bubble?” Yun argues that we are not heading toward another bubble as we currently lack the inventory for such a thing to happen. He advocates for more home-building in order to meet the current demand and maintain a gradual recovery of the economy.
He also pointed out at the CAAR meeting that the Federal Reserve always waits until after an election to raise rates because they don’t want to affect the outcome of the election. But Yun predicts that the mortgage rate will be more affected by inflation in 2017 and 2018, rather than by actions of the Federal Reserve. His economic forecast is that the economy will continue to be subpar, but may be affected by whoever is elected for President of the United States. He predicts that growth of the GDP will be 1.6%.
His housing forecast is as follows.
One of the few locales that offers brunch on both Saturdays and Sundays (7 am to 3 pm), La Taza is tucked away in the quaint area of Charlottesville’s downtown Belmont. La Taza, which is Spanish for “the cup,” roasts fresh Arabica coffee beans twice a week and describes its cuisine as “Latin-inspired.” This is apparent in brunch offerings such as the Guatemalan Breakfast and Huevos Rancheros, but they also offer traditional American fare such as eggs, potatoes, and bacon (“El Gringo”), as well as pancakes, eggs benedict, and biscuits and gravy. Indoors the tables are crafted from tree trunks and outdoors there is a lovely courtyard with seating and umbrellas along a mostly quiet street.
Located on the corner of the pedestrian mall and 5th Street SE, beside Bend Yoga, the Commonwealth Sky Bar offers Sunday brunch from 10 am to 3 pm. Their menu presents an eclectic array of brunch options, including the ostensibly Southern dish of fried green tomatoes, barbeque shrimp and grits, some southwestern flair with their stuffed poblanos, and the famous dish popularized in early 20th-century Harlem: chicken and waffles. While the second story open-air Sky Bar is closed on Sundays, there is an outdoor patio on one side and large windows that slide open in fair weather.
Occupying a narrow entrance on the pedestrian mall, but with ample indoor vintage seating and outdoor seating with umbrellas, Bizou serves up an elegant Sunday brunch (11:00 am to 2:00 pm) that includes eggs Florentine, hanger steak, salmon, and pomegranate mimosas. This 20-year-old Charlottesville establishment was started by two chefs who continue to have a hand (or two) in preparing the food. Much of the meat and produce are sourced locally, changing with the seasons, and all of the pastries are made in house.
Among the unique offerings of the Sunday brunch menu (11:00 am to 2:00 pm) at this favorite local Italian restaurant are a waffle sandwich (you read that right: bacon, cheese, and egg sandwiched between two waffles), challah French toast, and poached eggs on grilled focaccia. Located on the bustling corner of Market Street and 2nd Street NW, in fine weather Fellini’s throws the windows open.
tastes, from finely curated galleries to eclectic collections and antique malls that offer a mash-up of numerous vendors. You can easily find antique furnishings and vintage items to incorporate history into your newly purchased home, even as you yourself become a part of the region’s history in choosing to reside here. Whether you’re looking for a locally crafted and restored farm table, or imported antique Venetian glass, or an 18th century French settee, you have ample antique retailers and knowledgeable experts in the business to choose from. Here is just a sampling of the many antique stores in the Charlottesville/Albemarle area.
Occupying a large corner of McIntire Plaza in Charlottesville, Circa offers 10,000 square feet of antiques and furniture. Whether you’re looking for an old farm table, an elegant sofa with carved wooden feet, a salvaged mantelpiece, or teal-tinted mason jars for bouquets of cut flowers, you can find countless objects with a history to complement your new home. Owned and operated by a mother and daughter team, all staff members are trained as buyers so there is an eclectic range of items to choose from, including vintage pieces, original artwork, and funky decor. They also do their very best to price affordably so there is no need to haggle. And, perhaps most exciting of all, they can deliver (for a fee)!
Also on the downtown mall, next door to The Fitzroy and across from Wells Fargo, Siddhattha Buddha statues sit in windows and colorful paper lanterns rest on outdoor tables, inviting you into Oyster House Antiques to explore a visual history of China. Here, eastern antiques inspire creative uses in modern western households. For instance, an old wardrobe with ornate doors can be repurposed as a media cabinet. In addition to the downtown location, you can find their warehouse, which is open on weekends, across from Bodo’s on Preston Avenue.
Located in Keswick, six miles east of Charlottesville, A & W Collectibles is a collection of over twenty different vendors with a unique inventory that is frequently in flux. Their current inventory includes clocks, dishware, collectible dolls, vintage hats, antique furniture, and much more.
Enjoy a retro, 1950s vibe at Chaps on the downtown mall. You can either sit outside on the patio or in the cool indoors, relaxing at a booth upholstered in turquoise vinyl while a classic black and white TV show plays overhead. Chaps ice cream is made in-house based on a family recipe that they have followed for over 75 years. The waffle cones are also made by hand, and the menu includes sundaes, shakes, and hand-dipped frozen yogurt, as well as a full lunch and café menu. Their summer hours keep them open to 9 or 11 pm, depending on the night. If you’re on the university side of town, you can also find a selection of Chaps ice cream in the café of Foods of All Nations. 
In the heart of Charlottesville’s downtown mall, you can find 24-36 flavors of artisanal Italian gelato made fresh nearly every day! Gelato contains the same ingredients as ice cream, but in different proportions and therefore contains less fat than most American ice cream. It is also blended by hand with less air whipped into it so it remains dense. Splendora’s, which first opened in 2004, buys its hormone-free milk and cream from a Virginia dairy. They also offer sorbettos, which only contain fruit, sugar, and water but are surprisingly smooth and rich as well. Splendora’s encourages combining different flavors as a purchase of even their smallest cup comes with two scoops. A favorite combo of mine is mango and raspberry, perfect on a hot summer’s day. 
With over 100 years in business, Timberlake’s is renowned for “the best milkshakes in town.” It’s located on the corner of 4th Street and the pedestrian mall. It may look like a drug store at the front, but head to the back to sit on a chrome bar stool and check out the soda fountain and lunch counter offerings: milkshakes, sundaes, sandwiches, soups, and salads. While you’re back there, you can continue your travel through time by perusing photos of the original iteration of the shop.
If you’re in the Pantops area and need ice cream on the go or want to enjoy a dessert picnic outdoors, you can find Chandler’s Ice Cream at 921 River Road. Contained within a trailer and offering picnic table seating, Chandler’s is a throwback to summer carnival days with its soft serve ice cream and generous sundae portions.